February

Snow fell from the Dakotas and Minnesota to Missouri and Kansas on Jan. 18-19, then spread into the southern Great Lakes on the nineteenth as the center of Harper moved from the Ozarks into the central Appalachians. Near-blizzard conditions led to a 15-car pileup and hundreds of different accidents in Missouri. Two highway fatalities were reported in Missouri, one close to Sunrise Beach and the other near Kimberling City. A rollover crash killed a Kansas Department of Transportation employee in Johnson County, Kansas. Further north, two men died near Milwaukee, Wisconsin removing snow.

In the Plains, Carter dumped up to a foot of snow in a stripe from Wyoming and japanese Montana through Nebraska and South Dakota northeastward via Wisconsin and into the upper peninsula of Michigan on Dec. 1. As a November blizzard, Bruce was an atypical storm in components of the Plains and Midwest, and it was the first November blizzard on record in some cities, including Topeka, Kansas. Wind gusts topped 60 mph and visibility dropped beneath a hundred yards in several states as Bruce cranked up. The snowfall from New Jersey to New York City overperformed the forecasts, which had called for an earlier changeover to rain, and caught many off guard. The New York metro was notably affected by higher-than-expected snowfall amounts.

Notice that colder-than-normal temperatures and an excellent snow probability spherical out the headlines. Places where the forecast odds favor a a lot colder than usual winter or a lot warmer than usual winter , or the place the probability of a chilly winter, a heat winter, or a near-normal winter are all equal . This storm trickled in over 37 hours delivering solely 13 mm (0.5″) of precipitation. What didn’t trickle was the wind velocity, we saw gusts up to seventy two.5 mph with a median speed of 24.6 mph.

In reality even later this week we might see brief snowfall in the overnight/morning hours. We forecast U.S. propane exports this winter will be just like final winter’s excessive levels. Propane manufacturing outdoors of the United States remains under last year’s ranges because of ongoing OPEC+ crude oil production cuts and excessive global demand for propane as a petrochemical feedstock.

A sharp southward jet-stream plunge stored cold air largely confined to the Pacific Northwest, with comparatively delicate air over the remainder of the country. In the new2023 Almanac, we publish a full evaluation of last year’s long-range predictions. Our overall accuracy rate in forecasting the path of precipitation departure was far greater than our average, however our accuracy rate for temperature was far beneath average. This makes our total accuracy price 72.2%.Learn more about how accurately we predict the climate. Valley snow was touched on earlier, however once more 4 to 6 inches of complete snow is likely.

Storm #14 has now wound down after orographic snowfall and chilly temperatures in a single day. From early morning Monday Feb four to early this morning, Feb 7, we recorded 35 mm (1.4”) precipitation with 25.5 cm (10”) new snow accumulation at SASP and 19 cm (7.5”) at SBSP. Strong winds caught round just about the period of this storm as well, with a mean of 29.9 mph with gusts up to sixty six.eight mph, shifting the snow across the panorama continually. In the 10% colder scenario, we forecast that U.S. family expenditures for propane shall be 85% greater than final winter within the Northeast, reflecting 59% higher propane costs and 16% more consumption. Forecast expenditures within the colder scenario are 113% larger than last winter in the Midwest, reflecting 85% higher propane prices and 15% more consumption. Forecast expenditures in the colder state of affairs are 78% greater than last winter in the South, reflecting 59% larger propane prices and 12% extra consumption.

The inside Southwest is likely to end up drier, with extra precipitation reaching central California, particularly midseason. Once once more, El Niño will influence the winter climate throughout the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes. Taylor then brought a burst of snow and freezing rain from the central Appalachians to New England on March 10. Gusts between mph within the greater elevations of Wyoming and Colorado brought on major snowdrifts and boosted the avalanche danger as Taylor moved by way of. The month of March produced greater than 600 avalanches in Colorado, one of many state’s most intense swarms on report. Damage consistent with an EF4 tornado was seen in southwestern Lee County during a storm survey on Monday, March four, 2019.

These areas (shown in white and labeled EC for “equal chances”), have the same probability for above-, near-, or below-normal (33.33%). This doesn’t imply that near-average temperature or precipitation is predicted this winter in those areas, however quite that there’s no tilt within the odds towards any of the three outcomes. Because the chances proven are lower than one hundred pc , it means there is no guarantee you will see temperature or precipitation departures from regular that match the color step child snowboarding on the map. As we’ve explained in earlier weblog posts, even when one outcome is extra probably than another, there’s still all the time an opportunity that a much less favored consequence will occur . We’ll see what it appears like in phrases of SWE once we do our next snow profile, but it is one of the healthiest snowpacks for this time of yr in our interval of report.